Before we call in Chicken Little - there are a lot of factors that have
to be taken into account. First there are a lot more riders and horses
out there today. The overall experience level in both horses and riders
is probably lower because of this fact. Because of is the second factor
comes in - our rides are much bigger and there are more of them. A low
probability event will more likely to be observed as the number of
starters go up. It is a lot more significant when you saw a horse on
IV's at a ride in 93 where there were only 15 starters than seeing one
on IV's today with 75 starters.
The second factor is what you could call "we all used to die of old
age" syndrome. Back in the 50's most old people died of "old age."
Today they don't die of old age they die of this or that type of
cancer, lupus, etc. We just do a much better job characterizing and
keeping track. Today we do a better job at keeping track and the
internet connects people so that the word gets out and spreads like
wildfire on a dry CA canyon floor.
My personal recollection is we used to see more treatments in the mid
90's than we do today. SERA put in a two vet rule in the early 90's in
response to concern about treatments. In the SE at least I think the
treatments per starter have probably gone down since the early to mid
90's not up.
So while we need to get our arms around treatments and why horses are
treated - I'm not sure the sky is falling. We may just be seeing more
simply because we a) do a better job of knowing to treat and treat more
aggressively, b) have better record keeping so we have a better idea of
the actual picture and c) have many more starters so many more
opportunities for a low probability event to occure.
Yes, it is often "unique" for each individual
in terms of what system
actually fails--but the common denominator is that a lot more of them
break down metabolically with a lot less insult than we ever used to
see.
I find that not only depressing, but extremely alarming. Will this
trend get worse? What will stop it - that is to say, what can WE do
voluntarily, before some outside agency sees this trend and comes in to
correct it?
-- "It is necessary to be noble, and yet take humility as a basis
"It
is necessary to be noble, and yet
take humility as a basis.
It is necessary
to be exalted, and yet take modesty as a foundation."
