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RE: [RC] [RC] [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates - Kitley, Carrie E Civ USAF AFSPC 30 MDSS/SGSLF

I am always surprised at the amount of people who leave for home the day of 
their ride!  Especially those that do 50's.  Any so many of them have the comfy 
sleeper rigs with showers, heat, a/c, etc.  We have a tent.  lol
After I completed my 1st LD-30 at Tejon Ranch in CA, we immediately dismantled 
our camp, and headed the 4.5 hours to home.  I felt terrible doing this to my 
horse, but it was November and it was only 25 degrees at night there.  White 
frost covered everything.  I had the wrong sleeping bag, so froze all night, 
didn't sleep well, horses were cold, etc.  Normally, I wouldn't dream of 
cramming my poor exhausted girl into a trailer right after a ride, but I just 
couldn't spend another night there, sleeping in the back of our truck, frozen 
to the bone!  Even though my mare only had to endure a 30-miler that day (she's 
done many 50's), she was visibly even more exhausted when we arrived home.  
I made a decision after that first ride, never to do that to her again.  I will 
sacrifice my own comforts for hers in a heartbeat!  It's not worth the added 
distress to my horse and the potential of total loss.  I have learned a lot 
since then.  We now stay put until the day after the ride unless we're really 
close to home (which is very rare).  The last ride we did, in Gilroy, CA, there 
were only 2 rigs left in the whole camp the following day!  The place was 
deserted!  I was really surprised.  Of course, I have no idea how far the 
others had to drive to get home.  We were 4 hours away from home . . . . so we 
stayed.  Our horses were much happier for it, I'm sure.

Carrie Kitley
30th Medical Group, Vandenberg AFB
DMLSS?Database Sustainment Specialist (DSS) 
CACI?International Inc? www.caci.com
dsn?276-1077, Comm (805) 606-1077
fax dsn?276-1179
// \\


-----Original Message-----
From: ridecamp-owner@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
[mailto:ridecamp-owner@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Barb Kemerer
Sent: Friday, June 20, 2008 6:56 AM
To: Eric Rueter
Cc: AERCMembersForum@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; Ridecamp
Subject: Re: [RC] [RC] [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates

I know we have to go with the statistics that are available and I believe 
Truman used the day of and day after the ride. What about those people who 
finish the ride (25 and 50s) and throw their horse on the trailer and go home. 
It seems like this is becoming more prevalent at least in the Northeast.
Barb Kemerer

On Fri, Jun 20, 2008 at 8:24 AM, Eric Rueter <Eric@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> 

           I by no means am a statistician, nor a mathematician, nor a 
physicist -- or even a good speller.  But I would like to know if this makes a 
difference.  When you are looking at the death rates from the comparison study, 
are they not based on individual horses only counted once in a given time 
frame, and when you are looking at AERC stats you may be counting the same 
horse multiple times, across multiple years?  Does that really make a good 
comparison?  If not which way would it skew the results?  
       thanx eric
       Eric Rueter
       Rueter Consulting, Inc.

               ----- Original Message ----- 
               From: Truman Prevatt <mailto:tprevatt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>  
               To: Ridecamp <mailto:ridecamp@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>  ; 
               Sent: Friday, June 20, 2008 7:51 AM
               Subject: [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates

               This paper documents an analysis of the fatality rate of deaths
               associated with AERC rides. The fatalities for the years of 
2003 through 
               2007 are
               considered. The reason to look at this question now is with in 
excess of 
               110,000 starts in
               this five year period, the sample size is sufficient to 
               differentiate small
               proportions with a reasonable confidence. The data
               are analyzed with the AERC fatalities broken into four 
categories. The 
               first is all the
               fatalities. The second is the fatalities in the one day 100 
mile events. 
               The third is the
               fatalities in the "fifty" mile events (all rides except one day 
100 and 
               LD rides). The final
               category is LD. The question of do horses die at a higher 
proportion as 
               a result of colic in
               endurance that in the general population is also addressed.

               Messages in this topic 
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[RC] Analysis of Fatalities Rates, Truman Prevatt
Re: [RC] [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates, Eric Rueter
Re: [RC] [RC] [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates, Barb Kemerer