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Re: [RC] [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates - Eric Rueter

    I by no means am a statistician, nor a mathematician, nor a physicist -- or even a good speller.  But I would like to know if this makes a difference.  When you are looking at the death rates from the comparison study, are they not based on individual horses only counted once in a given time frame, and when you are looking at AERC stats you may be counting the same horse multiple times, across multiple years?  Does that really make a good comparison?  If not which way would it skew the results? 
thanx eric
Eric Rueter
Rueter Consulting, Inc.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, June 20, 2008 7:51 AM
Subject: [AERCMembersForum] Analysis of Fatalities Rates

This paper documents an analysis of the fatality rate of deaths
associated with AERC rides. The fatalities for the years of 2003 through
2007 are
considered. The reason to look at this question now is with in excess of
110,000 starts in
this five year period, the sample size is sufficient to statistically
differentiate small
proportions with a reasonable confidence. The data
are analyzed with the AERC fatalities broken into four categories. The
first is all the
fatalities. The second is the fatalities in the one day 100 mile events.
The third is the
fatalities in the "fifty" mile events (all rides except one day 100 and
LD rides). The final
category is LD. The question of do horses die at a higher proportion as
a result of colic in
endurance that in the general population is also addressed.





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[RC] Analysis of Fatalities Rates, Truman Prevatt