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Nature will balance forces to reach a state of equilibrium, but that 
state of equilibrium is very sensitive to any change in forces and if 
there is a change a rebalancing will take place to reach a new 
equilibrium. Most system be they physical, economic, biological, 
meteorological or social are quite complex. What we know is this 
complexity  leads to very subtle interactions between the components of 
the system whose behavior is very sensitive to even very small changes 
in the conditions - which has been termed the "butterfly effect."  It is 
stated as "a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil causing a very small 
change in local barometric pressure can cause a tornado to happen in 
Kansas."

Examples of these types of systems and the "butterfly effect" abound. 
Mathematically the behavior of such systems is studied in the field 
known as Chaos Theory. It seems to me that what species will thrive or 
not thrive in a given location falls smack into these considerations. If 
a species is introduced and the conditions are not favorable - it will 
not grow. A good example is the grass fescue.  It is the mainstay 
pasture grass in much of the Eastern and midwestern US. It was 
introduced by the British and is considered by many non-native or 
exotic. It grows well in the climates of the Eastern and midwestern US. 
However if you plant it in Florida - it will die out right after it 
comes up.

The Asian snake fish is another good example. Some found their way into 
the Potomac river near Washington some time back. The are very 
aggressive and grow quite large. However, they can only stand water 
temps above a certain temp. That limits them to the lower stretches of 
the river right around downtown Washington, DC. They must have warm 
fresh water - they can only live in a five mile stretch of the rider 
since below Washington it turns brackish as it works its way the the 
Cheapskate Bay. While it is exotic it can only survive in a very 
specific small area of the river with very specific conditions. It does 
not impact the other 500 miles of the river. Is it invasive and exotic - 
yes but only in a small area.

When the climate changes - even minor changes - it can change which 
species will thrive - independent of our desire for that to happen. Man 
has been mucking with nature for a long time. He has decided what to 
plant and what not to plant. He has introduced plants and grasses that 
benefit him - fescue being an example. Organisms adapt over time to 
survive and left to their devices the fittest for the conditions of the 
time will survive. Keeping "foreign" organisms out is extremely 
difficult. Wiping them out if the conditions are favorable for their 
growth can difficult and very expensive - and potentially a losing battle.

Whatever the final outcome of how we deal with exotics - we really need 
to take a fresh look at it. For example I cannot believe that pouring 
tons of herbicide on the ground is in the long term best interest of our 
ground water table, our streams, etc., and the animals that depend on 
these resources.  As we see climate changes on a global basis - which we 
are seeing and will be for quite a while it will have massive impacts on 
what plants grow where and what diseases we find we didn't have before.

There will be an equilibrium but one thing I think will be certain it 
will be on Mother Nature's terms - not ours.

Truman

--

"Mathematics may be defined as the subject in which we never know what 
we are talking about, nor whether what we are saying is true." Bertrand 
Russell


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