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RE: [RC] Steph's fallacious arguement (was: glass houses) - Jessica Cameron

Perhaps a better statistic would be too look at the number of horse deaths in all FEI rides (world-wide) over the past two years and look at the number of horse deaths in AERC over the past two years and see what the numbers say. 
 
Jessica Cameron ~~ Mtn. Region

> From: katswig@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> To: ridecamp@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RC] Steph's fallacious arguement (was: glass houses)
> Date: Mon, 2 Apr 2007 09:06:01 -0700
>
> Steph said:
>
> > There were 10 horse fatalities related to AERC
> > endurance events in 2006. (or perhaps 7 - I'm not
> > postitive on the number). Even at 7 this is more in
> > ONE year than the last TEN years of WEC's. Are
> > we perhaps living in a glass house?
>
> Anybody who knows anything about statistics should know that this is a
> really silly statement to be making. The AERC has 20,000+ starts in a
> single year. The WEC has averaged maybe 200.
>
> In the last 10 years that means there has been (since the WEC is only
> once every two years) at most 1000 starts, and, if I remeber correctly,
> there were two horse fatalities during that time. 2:1000 (0.2%) is
> waaaaaaaay more horse fatalities per starter than 7:20,000 (0.035%)
> almost six times as many. And if one wants to make a valid argument
> with respect to number of fatalities, that arguement must take into
> consideration more than just the raw number of deaths, it has to at
> least take into consideration the number of participants.
>
> There may be reasons that the AERC shouldn't be throwing stones at
> international endurance competition; however, bringing up numbers of
> fatalities is not a valid way to demonstrate such. Fatality rates MY be
> a valid way to demonstrate it, but if one looks at fatality RATES
> (deaths per participant), then, indeed the WEC has a much more
> significant problem with dead horses than the AERC does.
>
> kat
> Orange County, Calif.
> :)
>
>
>
>
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