Endurance.Net Ridecamp Archives

It would be interesting to see how many teams had two finishing - you 
would expect 10. But what it looks like is that how the teams faired was 
equivalent to tossing a biased coin with the probability of landing 
heads 38% of the time. This pretty much implies the teams may have been 
more lucky than good and the metals went to the ones left standing.

The more speed you add the more risk you are accepting for not finishing 
and the more risk you accept - the more "luck" comes in to play.

Truman

Michael Maul wrote:

> So what this seems to say is that the team members were not successful 
> in riding any more conservatively than the overall group. The number 
> of finishing teams fits the probability very well as only 4 teams 
> finishing. Team riders didn't successfully apply a strategy that would 
> maximize finishing any better than the individual riders.
>
> Or could one say that the effect of speed, the difficulty of the 
> course, and strict vetting was stronger than any strategy used by the 
> 31 teams given that each team felt that some amount of speed was 
> required?
>
> Mike
>
> Truman Prevatt wrote:
>
> >  From the back of the envelope:
> > Assuming the probability of a team member finishing is .38 - the at 
> > random the probability of a team for a team of 4 is
> > 4 finishing .0209
> > 3 finishing .136
> > 2 finishing .333
> > 1 finishing .262
> > 0 finishing .1478
> >
> > The mean number of riders on a team finishing is 1.44. The most 
> > likely number finishing on a team is 2.
> >
> > The probability of a team finishing ( 3 or 4) is or about .157 or 
> > 15.7% of the teams would finish. I don't know how many teams finsihed 
> > but taking the 31 number (180 riders divided by 6 per country so 30 
> > ro 31 makes sense) at random that would be 4.867 teams finishing. I 
> > do belive there were more than 5 teams finishing.
> >
> > Truman

>


--

“Many people consider the things government does for them to be social 
progress but they regard the things government does for others as 
socialism.” Earl Warren





=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Ridecamp is a service of Endurance Net, http://www.endurance.net.
Information, Policy, Disclaimer: http://www.endurance.net/Ridecamp
Subscribe/Unsubscribe http://www.endurance.net/ridecamp/logon.asp

Ride Long and Ride Safe!!

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=