I wish Kathy well. Since about '97, I've heard a few profess to want to
do a 100, but as of yet I haven't seen their name in the list. Bottom
line is you can't argure with the numbers. When I looked at this some
time back - and was quite shocked at the numbers. Since '96 there has
been a steady downward trend in 100 - in any way you want to cut it.
There are fewer starts, fewer individuals and fewer riders. The best I
found was maybe flat in the West and that is because of one ride - the
Tevis. If you remove the Tevis - it is even worse. When the growth of
the membership has been factored in - it's even worse. We've gone from
about 1600 starters in 1996 when the AERC member was about 4000 to 993
in 2003 when the AERC membership was over 6000. A 50% membership
growth and about a 33% percent decline in 100 starters.
As far as reasons, it's difficult to speculate since my crystal ball is
no clearer than anyone elses. One RM told me - the riders have enough
100's already from what they support. And that is pretty much true. The
average 100 is 19 starters - remove the Tevis and it is 12 starters.
With the 25/50 mile portion of the ride running over a 100 at most
rides - at least in this region - there is little incentive for RM's to
do something special for 5 riders. Ten years ago with the 25/50 portion
of the ride at 50 to 60 there was more incentive to run a 100 for 15
riders. That was and is now the case in at least the region.
This year based on a preceived demand - maybe from people on the list
saying they were going to do a 100 - two rides offered 100's in the SE.
Three riders showed up at each. Will these ride managers offer 100's
next year. I doubt it and I can't blame them. FL alone used to be able
to support three 100's - now it struggles to support 2. The average
turn out at two rides 100's is about 1/2 to 2/3's of what it was 5 or 6
years ago.
As far as FEI - this has turned a lot of rides into "high profile"
rides - with all the FEI trapping. While there is a lot of claims that
"it won't impact the other rides," it does impact some riders. I
suspect that many if not most of us got our first 100 in small to
medium 100 mile rides. The loss of the small to medium 100 mile ride is
one of the first causalities in the decline in demand.
The other thing that might be happening is the advent of the multiday
ride. For those that are not interested in FEI, the multiday ride may
be replacing the 100 as an ultimate goal in the heart and mind of the
rank and file. That is the multiday ride is competiting with the 100
mile ride as the next challenge beyond the 50. There are 3 multiday
rides in the SE this year - we'll see what impact that has. Next year
it is rumored that there will be a five day ride in FL. There are more
options today than there was 10 years ago and that may be impacting the
100.
Whatever the reason, the demand is declining and in response the supply
is declining. This can be a vicious circle.
For those that profess to "going to do a 100," my suggestion to you is
even if you are not ready to ride one - go help a ride manager. Putting
on a 100 is a lot of work. Ride managers need help. They are not going
to do it long for 3 or 4 riders and little help. If you don't go help
them out ther rides just may not be there when you are ready.
