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John Teeter has provided a link on the Endurancenet site to 
Truman Prevatts statistical analysis of the pull data for 
the 2002 ride season.

It's at

http://www.endurance.net/whatsnew/aercstats.html

Truman has been working with AERC on this using the records 
from the office database.  It's a very detailed statistical 
report.

It's been a really long time since my statistics in college 
so I've providing the summary below.  100 mile rides are 
excluded.  I've  talked directly to Truman about the 
results.  This is for roughly 21,000 ride starts in 2002.

I've included my own interpretations in ().  These are not 
Trumans and he may have other thoughts.

Metabolic pulls:

There is no difference in metabolic pull rates for multiday 
rides and regular endurance rides.  (The strategy of 
conserving your horse for completing all days isn't a factor 
apparently. Metabolic pulls seem to occur independent of 
this strategy.)

There is no difference in metabolic pull rates between 
regions.  Hot humid regions have the same metabolic pull 
rate as cool dry regions. (Perhaps riders in hot humid 
regions know how to handle this and their horses are 
acclimated to it.)

Lameness pulls:

There is a significant difference in lameness pull rates by 
region with the highest rates being in the NE and SE. 
Lowest were in MT and MW.  Significant means up to 50% 
greater and 50% less.  CT, SW, W were average.

There is a huge difference in lameness pull rates for 
multiday rides vs one day endurance rides.  The pull rate 
for lameness at a one day endurance ride is 7 times the rate 
at multiday rides.  The huge difference is not explainable 
and needs more examination.

It's nice that we can finally start using the data in our 
files to see what's happening and where to focus effort.  I 
would not have expected the results Truman is finding.

I would have thought that lameness pulls dominated in W, SW, 
PS and metabolic pulls dominated in CT, MW, and SE.  It's 
not true.  I would have thought that multiday rides would 
have less MB and lameness pulls but not a huge difference.

These are just my thoughts on looking at the results of 
Trumans analysis.

What are other views on this from our lists?

Mike


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