Endurance.Net Ridecamp Archives

Hi Mike -- Yes, I did that for two years, and you'd do just as well 
throwing darts to get any kind of a relationship on whether 
experience matters, and how much, as to if the rider and horse 
completed the ride or not.  There really aren't that many riders 
entering that don't have some experience, though among the ones that 
did their odds were pretty much the same as everybody else.  I think 
that you can't just look at #'s and think they mean anything - some 
riders have little AERC experience but have NATRC or other real life 
experience.  Remember at one time, most people riding the Tevis were 
doing it as their first endurance ride.  Now the requirements have 
changed, so I don't know how that will affect things.

A better way to figure it is to look at the body condition score, or 
to look at their history of Tevis completions, or to observe each 
individual during the season up until that ride,   The latter is 
pretty subjective, but I've gotten pretty good at making a list of 
ten or fifteen that I think will finish, and ten or fifteen that I 
think won't.  Sometimes I'm only off by a couple on the total.  I 
think the completion rate could be higher (but not by a huge amount) 
if horses that were only absolutely 100% were brought to the ride 
(meaning they were having no previous difficulties at or following 
other rides during the season), and if they reduced the # of 
vetchecks or hold times so riders could slow down on the trail and 
not feel rushed to make time.

Karen


At 04:10 PM 5/17/2007, Michael Maul wrote:
> In response to:"> You can also fairly
> > > well predict Tevis pulls by the number of
> > > miles experience of the horse, too.
>
> Is this true?
> "
>
> I thought Karen Chaton did an analysis some years back and didn't 
> see any correlation in experience, lifetime miles, distance traveled 
> to the ride in whether a horse completed.
>
> She may want to comment on this so I've copied her.
>
> Mike


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