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Re: [RC] Are the LD's feeding 50's? - Sisu West Ranch"....Prediction causation is best left to the philosophers and theologians...."And we all know that the above groups never make wrong predictions or cause any harm. Seriously, as Truman well knows, given a correlation as the basis for forming a testable hypothesis science is very good at doing experiments designed to separate causation from things that just happen to correlate. The people who do this used to be called "natural philosophers", which is why I have a piece of fake sheep skin, granting me the degree of "Doctor of Philosophy in Physical Chemistry" (Contrary to rumors, PhD does not relate to BS being "piled higher and deeper") An old illustrative example follows: Living near a tropical swamp is highly correlated with catching Malaria, but living near a swamp does not cause Malaria. The observation of the correlation enabled the testing of the hypothesis that being bitten by certain mosquitoes has a better correlation, and that ultimately the testing of a further hypothesis that the mosquitoes carried protozoal parasites of the genus Plasmodium which do cause malaria. The problem is then two fold. First, the hypothesis must be testable. (God made Mosquitoes is not testable. Mosquitoes transmit Malaria is testable). Second, you must be able to perform the test and observe the results. Since there are only a few AERC regions, and the ride managers and members in those regions independently, and stubbornly decide to manage and ride as they wish, it would be difficult if not almost impossible to do an experiment designed to find out what caused the differences in behavior. We have to live with correlation. (Often correlation is all that is required to make progress. The Romans knew that living near swamps was correlated with catching Malaria. Some of their "Natural Philosophers" decided that it was the "bad air" that caused the malaria. Others, more practical, (we call them engineers today) simply drained the swamps and got rid of the disease). Ed Ed & Wendy Hauser 2994 Mittower Road Victor, MT 59875 (406) 642-9640 ranch(at)sisuwest(dot)us =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Ridecamp is a service of Endurance Net, http://www.endurance.net. Information, Policy, Disclaimer: http://www.endurance.net/Ridecamp Subscribe/Unsubscribe http://www.endurance.net/ridecamp/logon.asp Ride Long and Ride Safe!! =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
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