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RE: Re: [RC] More interesting stats - heidi

I have to disagree to a certain extent, with some numbers of my own.  I am 
arguing not about speeds per say, but about PLACINGS. 
  
Its clear to me that placing IS a huge factor in LD BC.  Just looking at one 
region of the top-4 competitors in the LD Regional BC standing, counting 37 
total BC's for these 4 horse/rider teams: 26 of those BC's were 1st place, 6 
were 2 place, 2 were 3rd place, 1 was 5th place, and NONE were beyond 5th 
place.  I am sure that these horses were in great condition and I do not 
suggest any of thes horse/rider teams were racing, but it is clear to me that 
IF BC is a goal, & IF placing in Regional LD BC is a goal, you can not be 
placing out of the top-3 on a regular basis.  Remember speed is 25% (200 of 
800  points) and each minute is a point & numbers can be construed in many 
different ways too. 

Indeed, time is a factor--but given the shorter distance, the time
portion has roughly half of the impact on an LD BC as it does on a
50-mile BC, and roughly one quarter the impact that it does on 100 mile
BCs.  I've long felt that the time component was about right on the
50-60 mile distances, but really unfair to the 100s.  And while it does
have impact, it has far less impact on LD.

It stands to reason that those who habitually win the award are also
people who have horses fit enough to travel somewhat faster than
average.  But let's look at this another way.  I looked up the NW rides
once again.  29 of them actually awarded an AERC LD BC.  Of those, yes,
there is a trend for it to be awarded closer to the front of the
pack--and again, this is understandable given that fitter horses on
average travel faster.  But the actual distribution is:  1st place, 10
awards.  2nd place, 3 awards.  3rd place, 3 awards.  4th place, 3
awards.  5th place, 4 awards.  6th place, 5 awards.  7th place, 0
awards.  8th place, 1 award.  9th place, 1 award.  10th place, 1 award.

Additionally, sometimes the later horses do not show for BC.  When I
sponsored a junior rider on LDs this past year, we Top Tenned on a few
occasions.  The first time I went with her and showed for BC, to help
her learn the ropes.  But at many of the later rides, I did not.  The
further back in the Top Ten, the less apt the rider is to return to
judge, too--and that has to have an effect.  (BTW, this also points out
the educational aspect--it is really GOOD for novice riders who DO
venture into the Top Ten to show for BC--it really helps them learn
about presentation, what the vets look for, etc.  Just one more aspect
of their education--I know it really helped my newbie junior to show
for BC a few times.)

It would be interesting to see the breakdown on vet scores, but that
info is not in the on-line database.  My experience judging these
horses is that in order for the first place horse to win the award,
they still have to have a pretty spiffy vet score.  The time may break
a near-tie, but it is a small enough number that if the vet score
differential is very much at all, the award will go to a later-placing
horse.  And of course, having carried more weight helps, too.

Heidi


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