Endurance.Net Ridecamp Archives

Truman said:

> You could go to the DB and get the exact number.
> ...The facts are the facts - good bad or indifferent they are the
facts.
> ... You got my curiosity up - maybe I'll go do a pull.
Yes I have cut out lots of bits, but have left, I think, the relevant
parts.

No _I_ couldn't go the the DB and get exact numbers because I don't have
access to it the way that he does, so there is no way that I can
determine if "the facts are the facts" or if it is just Truman's spin on
"the facts" depending on how he decides to pull data out of the database
to support whatever particular agenda he has in mind. Statistical
analyses are notorious for doing this, although ususally inadvertently.

Previously I pointed out that Truman's use of the AERC database for
drawing conclusions based on average speeds at endurance rides (as if
average speeds were even relevant, but that is a separate topic) was
flawed because even I knew that the AERC database didn't contain enough
data to even calculate average speeds.  As a result, I consider the
validity of ALL Truman's analyses to be suspect since _I_ have no way of
going to the database myself to determine if and to what extent his
analyses may be biased (eg. what part of the data he ISN'T pulling out),
and it is virtually impossible for anybody to determine their OWN biases
(since most people, myself included, are totally unaware of them many to
the extent that they can't recognize them even when somebody else points
them out :)).

What I would like to know is why Truman has access to the database and I
don't (yes, I have asked because I wanted to do a study on the color of
endurance horses, which is also a separate topic)?  Because if I did
have access to it, I would be able to determine for myself the extent to
which I considered Truman's analyses valid rather than proceeding under
the assumption that they are all as likely to be as flawed as his
"average speed" analysis :).

The FACT is, there is more than one way to look at data.  There is no
way to determine if "the facts are the facts" because all we have access
to is Truman's view of the facts which IS going to be biased (and as a
self-proclaimed physicist, he should know this:  ALL views are biased).

There is almost always another way to "look at the data" and rarely ever
can just one person come up with it, we have a perfect example of this
in John and Bob's discussion of the meaning of the "fact" that only 10%
of the AERC membership is also a member of AERC International (BTW,
nobody yet has provided enough data to draw any meaningful information
from that "fact" which Truman acknowledges because he has said that he
is going to go do a pull from the database, but for the information to
be meaningful, there has to be significantly more than just one person,
no matter who it is, "pulling" from the data).

kat
Orange County, Calif.





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REAL endurance is sleeping in the tack compartment of your trailer w/the
door open, and your horse snorts/snots on your forehead every 30 min!
~ Heidi Sowards

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