Today, many more people die of cancer. When you look further, you will
find that people are living longer and you live long enough you will
probably get cancer. Also, many moons ago people died of "old age."
What was old age - good chance that much of it was cancer. The ability
to determine the cause of death was not as good and in given the rural
nature of our society in the 1800's to the mid 1900's, people just died
of old age. So to some extent there is somewhat a statistically shell
game in any such proclamations.
We have many more riders today than we did 10 years ago. We have more
inexperienced riders today than 10 years ago. We probably do a better
job of knowing when a horse dies today than we did 10 years ago, so
it's difficult to say with a high degree of certainty that this problem
has not been with us for quite a while. That being the case, Jim makes
a very good point - the problem is not going away. We have had as many
metabolic deaths last already this year as we had last year and we have
two 1/2 months to in the season.
People have been racing a long time - even before the UAE got involved.
The winning times today aren't any faster than they were 10 years ago.
The Carolina 100 was won in 7:40 in '94. There may, however, be a
difference.
Two years ago I looked at the speeds of one ride in the SE region. This
ride has been going on forever on the same course. It has always been
one of the biggest draws in the region and always has a big field.
While the winning speed hadn't changed the number of people running a
fast speeds had significantly gone up. That is the average speed was
going up and by any measure the field was riding faster. I had ridden
it some years ago at 5:20 on the mare and finished the 1/3 point in the
pack To years ago I rode it at 5:00 and finished at the same place in
the pack and the pack was the same size within a horse or two both
times.
So it may not be the racing - it may be almost everyone is going
faster! I remember a conversation with Jon Warren one time when he said
it not the riders that always ride fast that he worries about, it's the
"transition horses," i.e. the horses that typically run mid pack but
now are running in the first 1/3 of the pack or the horses that are
normally back of the pack and are now running mid pack.
So it might not be the racing aspect that is at issue, but the fact
that for some reason the whole pack is running faster.
There would be a few numbers that might be of some interest on the
horses that have died over the recent years. The first one is rider
miles at the distance the horse died in, the second is horse mileage at
the distance he/she was in when he/she died. The speed they (horse and
rider) were going at that distance in the ride they died vs. the speed
they (horse) had gone in that distance prior.
For example the two horses that died at the WEC were ridden by
inexperienced riders.
Maybe, just maybe there might be a clue in there. We need to address
this issue but we don't need to" knee-jerk" it. To solve a problem you
first have to understand it - then you can develop a solution.
Hopefully that is the direction the HWC is going.
Truman
Barbara McCrary wrote:
Is it possible that the
increase in metabolic problems is a result of the increase in rides
sponsored by the UAE? These rides being flatland races.....and riders
being hosted in such a sumptuous manner. I haven't been there
personally, but I've heard and read about the luxurious facilities to
which foreign riders are treated. Could there be any connection
between the desire to ride there and the increase in speed and
subsequent troubles we are experiencing here? Or even the desire and
opportunity to ship our horses abroad for World Championships and WEGs?
Barbara
Trying to be a detective and
determine if, and why, there might be some connection to increased
international competition.
