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[RC] Analysis of fatality rates - k s swigart

In the report, Truman's comment:

The 22 year old horse is sufficiently close to the 5 to 20
category to make the use of the statistic from this category
valid. Even if you threw out the 22 year old and reduced the
sample space by one horse and the fatalities by one -

Throwing out the one 22 year old death and reducing the sample space by
one would be a totally inaccurate way to do things as it assumes that
the only horses over the age of 20 that compete in endurance rides ever
is the one 22 year old that started only once over the age of 20 and
died during that ride.

I don't have a huge problem with using the 5-20 year old age range in
the statistics available about the general population because endurance
horses mostly DO fall into this age category and it is, presumably, the
best data available...

...but please, do not try to adjust the AERC data by throwing out one
start and one fatality.  You would have to throw out ALL the AERC starts
of horses that don't fall into the 5-20 year old range, and all their
deaths at rides (which is, apparently, one).

Orange County, Calif.

"If the end justifies the means, everybody is justified." John G. Beck,


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