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[RC] More fun stats on LD speeds - heidi

OK, I finally had some time to sit around home on the computer this
morning.  So just for the heck of it, I looked up the 38 rides in the
NW that offer both an LD and a ride in the 50-60 mile range.  I
calculated the speed in mph for the fastest times on each event, and
also for the slowest times.  The results are interesting.  I would add
that the NW is a region that has been awarding LD BC for many years
(using the AERC system), and that our regional organization also offers
many incentives to LD riders.

Here's what I found out.

At 30 of the 38 rides, the 50-60 mile winners traveled at a higher rate
of speed than did the LD winners.  At only 8 of the rides did the LD
winners travel faster than the 50-60 mile winners.

On the 8 rides where the LD winner traveled faster, the speed
differences ranged from a mere 0.02 mph faster up to the highest
differential of 0.97 mph faster.

In contrast, on the 30 rides where the 50-60 mile winner traveled faster
than the LD winner, the speed differential ranged from 0.23 mph faster
to a whopping 4.7 mph faster for the winners of the longer distances.

Of the 30 rides where the endurance winner traveled faster than the LD
winner, half of them (15) had a difference of less than 1 mph.  (Of
those, 8 were less than 0.5 mph faster, and 7 were between 0.5 and 1.0
mph faster.)  In the other half, there were 3 where the difference was
1-2 mph faster, 6 where the 50s traveled 2-3 mph faster, 4 where they
traveled 3-4 mph faster, and 2 where they traveled 4+ mph faster than
the LD winners.

On average for the entire 38 rides, the 50-60 mile winners traveled at
9.97 mph (range 6.67 mph to 13.51 mph).  On average, the LD winners of
the same 38 rides traveled 8.84 mph (range 6.13 mph to 12.16 mph), or
an average of 1.13 mph slower than the 50-60 mile winners.

Additionally, on well over half of the rides (24 of 38), the slowest
50-60 mile finisher traveled faster than the slowest LD finisher.

In my region, at least, I don't see anything in the above that would
support the notion that awarding placings, printing times, or awarding
AERC BC awards to the Top Ten on LD rides causes the riders to ride at
tremendous speeds.

Contrast this to a ride that stands out in my memory from the mid-70s,
before AERC made 50 miles the cut-off point for endurance.  I worked a
ride where the winner of the 25 did the course in 1:09--that figures
out to 21.74 mph.  And no, the horse was never able to run again--we
put him in the trailer with bilateral bowed tendons, barely able to
bear weight on his front legs.  I doubt that he lived long.

What made rides of less than 50 miles deadly was 1) calling them
endurance rides and thus allowing them to be run for overall points; 2)
not having a fit-to-continue safeguard; 3) not having the pulse-down
before the time ended, and 4) having fewer vet checks on average, so
the vets could not pull or caution riders who were putting their horses
in jeopardy.

By putting LD in its own division with some additional rules, the above
scenarios have by and large been relegated to the "not-so-good" old
days.  It also allows LD riders to compete for regional and national
mileage awards without the pressure of points-chasing, and with only
other LD riders in competition with them.  

The BC award, even when given to the Top Ten, requires that the rider
ride smart and take good care of his/her horse.  So despite its time
element, it simply does not promote irresponsible racing.  One only
need ride fast enough to be in range.  And the above figures certainly
don't support the notion that LD riders are out there running their
brains out, despite the fact that our region has always given LD AERC
BCs.

Heidi


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