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Re: [DR] Re: [RC] [AERC-Members] Multiday/Single day ride speed analysis - renegade12

Truman,

I think it would be interesting, and perhaps more informative, to do an
analysis on individual riders and their speeds at different rides rather
than trying to develop a conclusion from data that doesn't have enough
"bottom" to give a valid conclusion.  The Top 50 Fastest Rides doesn't
take into consideration that the duplicate trails and entrants skewer the
results...what I mean, if a rider has ridden a trail multiple times they
will be able to improve their speed each subsequent time...I think that
is what you see in my rides listed in the Top 50...same riders, same
basic trails on the same ranch - trail loops may be in different order
but that doesn't change or alter the speed - especially since I get
mostly the same riders - I can tell you within a few minutes the ride
time of most of the riders before the ride even starts, based on my
experience over the years.

However, if you took 50 different riders who compete in both multi days
and single days and compared each riders ride times in the different type
of rides - that would give a better analysis, in my opinion.

Randy Eiland 
On Sun, 13 Jul 2003 17:46:51 -0400 Truman Prevatt
<tprevatt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> writes:
The question that was address is are the multidays ridden at a slower 

speed than the single days in the same regions. The data was based 
on 
all riders entering both single day rides and multiday rides. These 
two 
categories were then analyzed. The chart was put in there for 
illustrative purposes so - no conclusion was based on it. The fact 
that 
here were more pioneer rides than one would expect was an 
afterthought 
and not critical one way or the other for the analysis.

In reality there are many of the same riders in the multiday rides 
as in 
the single day rides and many of the same riders in many different 
single day rides. The riders are the constant population that is 
used to 
test the hypothesis.

Any analysis of this type of data is useful for trying to understand 
in 
a more rigorous way that our gut feel facts about the underlying 
population. The question this raises is why do the multiday riders 
swear 
they are going slower when they aren't. Maybe they are going faster 
they 
are going faster than they think - that is what the clock says.

Truman

renegade12@xxxxxxxx wrote:

I can only speak to the rides I managed that were used in your 50 
ride
data - If you look at the complete information, you will find that 
more
than 50% of the entries are the same people, and the trails are 
similar
if not the same...weather hardly changes out here in the winter 
desert...
so, knowing the trails and the entrants from the 9 rides I managed 
that
are on your data base, using them over and over will show a 
distorted
result - it would be better to use one of my rides rather than 9 to 
get
true information that has wide spread validity.

Randy Eiland
 





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