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    Re: [RC] [RC] Critical Thinking/The six rules of evidential reasoning /was petcommunicators - Tamara Woodcock


    From: "Dolores Arste" <darste@xxxxxxx>
    Subject: RE: [RC] Critical Thinking/The six rules of evidential reasoning /was pet communicators


    "The Six Rules of Evidential Reasoning"

    These rules presume that we know everything this is to know. In a book
    called "Mozart and the Fighter Pilot" the brain and its functions are
    explored. And, there is just so much we do not know. In D'Darte's times it
    was thought that animals could not feel pain. He is quoted as saying "In is
    incredible that they are so good a feigning the feelings of pain". This is
    what science concludes.
    
    ***

    No, this is what science *concluded*, until the evidence pointed out differently. Don't mix up past and present. It is ridiculous to say that just because something was believed in the past to be true and is now false, that it means that anything believed true now is catagorically false. Actually the critical thinking presumes we *don't* know everything, but aren't gullible enough to believe it without evidence...

    ***
    So now we know this is not true. The brain translates messages into actions
    in an unknown way. I personally have had a long distance telepathic
    experience with a favorite dog. There are test going on right now that prove
    that a dog can determine the exact time an owner leaves from work. Even
    though that work is 20 miles away.
    ***

    And if research demonstrates beyond coincidence that this is so, I will change my belief. Such extraordinary claims, as telepahy in any man or beast, requires extraordinary evidence. It is not *my* burden to prove this false, but rather *your* burden to prove that it is so. Prove that pet communicators are not deluding themselves and their marks. Double-blind tests under controlled circumstances would work for me.

    Even if your dog should have fetched his ball the exact moment you telepathically asked him to do so over long distance; this is not evidence of telepathy. As a believer in psi, you ignore this when you conclude that, after numerous subsequent attempts in long distance telepathy with your favorite dog have failed to produce the original positive result (ie Fideo did not go fetch the ball...), that telepathy must be too elusive to measure, or intermittent, effected by sunspots, cosmic dust, or something else to account for this lack of replicability. Applying Occam's Razor, the honest conclusion would be that the original positive result must have been a coincidence...

    One should not presume that the world is flat even if it stands up to
    current knowledge and testing. JMHO.
    

    Why not? Just because the sky is blue and it's blueness stands up to current knowledge and testing, should I instead believe the sky is actually purple with pink and yellow polka dots?


    For myself, being a responsible adult means accepting the fact that almost all knowledge is tentative, and accepting it with grace and cheer for I might be required to change my beliefs tomorrow, *if the evidence warrants*, and I am able and willing to do so. After all, the world *was* flat until evidence proved it otherwise...

    I am quite aware that just because I have examined all the evidence available today is no guarantee that there will not be new and disconfirming evidence tomorrow, but it does guarantee that I have good reasons for believing the claim. It guarantees that I have sold my belief for a fair price, and that it has not been stolen from me. So until *you* can prove psychic communication with your dog, beyond coincidence, don't expect anyone else to think you aren't a loon. Prove it and I will be the first to congradulate you!


    -Tamara


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