Re: statistics

[terre <tobytrot@bigfoot.com>]

At 09:58 AM 08/06/2000 -0700, David LeBlanc wrote:
>>We tend to assume that the LDers are 1)newbies riding 'entry level'--ie
young or not-really-cut-out-for endurance horses, or 2)physically
compromised riders or 3)pleasure riders (or some variation of the above).  
>
>I think this may be a bad assumption. I know personally one rider who is
doing LD this year because he doesn't have time to train, and he's one of
the best in this area - he normally rides endurance.  There are a number of
other scenarios - you could have experienced LD riders with many seasons
under their belt (e.g., my wife prior to this season), you could have a
very experienced rider bringing up a new horse - there's a lot of different
reasons to be doing LD other than the above.  I would also speculate that
you are going to find very few people fitting the above descriptions
placing 1st in LD rides.  It may be that new riders tend to concentrate in
LD, but it is also probably true that top-10 level LD riders may have
different characteristics as a population than the overall population of LD
riders.

	Yes, I know, and my next sentence was that I don't believe this assumption
to be valid.  However, you are making my point for me--the 'endurance'
rider who doesn't have 'time to train' is probably riding slower than when
he was doing 50s on a fully conditioned horse, the 'very experienced riding
bringing up a new horse' will certainly be riding at a moderate pace--etc.
If the 'bulk' of the field fits into one of these categories, then the
'winner' would not necessarily HAVE to go all that fast to win--and perhaps
they are canny enough to go only as fast as they need to, and no faster. 


>This is very true. I witnessed a tie-up happen on an out of shape horse
with an out of shape rider that was well back in the pack of an LD ride.  I
think this is a better concern than whether someone is racing or not at any
given distance.

	Absolutely.
	I think the perception of "LD racing" comes from that fact that many, many
50 and up riders have had LD horses come blasting past them early in the
ride, thus presenting this picture.  But of course 1)these will be the
slowest 'endurance' riders and the fastest LD, 2)it almost invariable
happens on the first loop, and the LD riders may well be either 'out of
control' to some extent, or forced to slow down on the next loop, thus
finishing with a slower overall time than would be expected from their
initial speed.
	I think the analysis of stats in this sport will always be of questionable
(tho fascinating!) value---there are just SO many variables.  For example,
the ride I co-manages puts the short riders on a different trail than the
long riders, and the loop we select for them is the most "technical"  (ie
weaving through trees, crossing creeks, etc).  The powerline you can gallop
on isn't even in the short ride.  We do this for two reasons--1)I believe
it is a more enjoyable ride, thru winding trails in the trees and 2)to slow
them down!  So, it probably works based on your stats.

Intriguing stuff!

terre